I just finished reading an excellent book called "Outliers" by Malcolm Gladwell (author of The Tipping Point and Blink- Both excellent books). In Chapter 1 he writes about the importance of being a little bit older for your grade. He uses examples of soccer, hockey, and baseball to illustrate this point. I hypothesized that Wrestling State Champs were probably also older for their grade. There are obvious advantages that go along with this. Physical and mental maturity will likely present themselves disguised as talent.A person who is older for their grade will generally be seen by others and themselves as better than those around them. As a result, older children will be seen as having more talent than their peers. The older children will be then treated by coaches and peers differently (as someone with talent). This could lead concrete advantages such as nomination to compete and/or practice in special leagues, tournaments, and divisions. This special treatment would give the older child a special opportunity to improve. As a result of this special treatment, added practice, comparison to younger peers, and praise from peers, coaches, and adults, older children could grow to have higher self-confidence. Notice this success cycle that is in place for such individuals.
MY Study
100 State Champs
I compared everyone as if they were in the same grade-
Graduation Year:Year Born
1997:1979, 1998:1980, 1999:1981, 2000:1982, 2001:1983, 2002:1984, 2003:1985, 2004:1986, 2005:1987, 2006:1988, 2007:1989, 2008:1990, 2009:1991, 2010:1992, 2011:1993
Results:
Month Born - Number of State Champs born in that time period
October or before of previous year - 30
November of previous year - 10
December of previous year - 9
January - 8
February - 8
March - 7
April - 5
May - 5
June - 8
July - 2
August - 4
September - 4
October or After - 0
INTERPRETATION
Do you see the pattern? Most state champs are born in the previous year or in the earlier months of their year. In other words, they tend to be older for their grade. These results are a researchers dream. They are clear cut, with no statistical analysis needed, you can just look at it and see the pattern.
30% of the state champs were born in October or before of the previous year.
57% of the state champs were born before February.
77% of state champs were born before May.
92% were born before August.
The results speak for themselves! An important thing to realize here is that many of the state champions won the title a few times. Though they may have been young (not a senior) that year, they still have been socialized in the above mentioned success cycle of older children, thereby reaping the benefits that are associated with it.
Before entering a state champions pool this year for the NJSIAA Tournament, perhaps you should find the contenders birthdays...
*NOTE- No one is born to become a state champion on ability alone. I have seen and trained with many of the state champs I polled and know personally that they are some of the most dedicated wrestlers out there. Most train all year long, almost exclusively on wrestling. I also know many people who are old for their grade that have not amounted to anything in their wrestling career. This shows that birthdays and age are not everything. But, they may have more to do with success than we may realize.
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Outliers totally changed the way I look at success. Another interesting study would be how a disproportionate number of successful wrestlers come from the same small area. What makes one region better than the rest? The water? Read Blink if you haven't.
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